A discrete-time-evolution model to forecast progress of Covid-19 outbreak.

Here we present a discrete-time-evolution model with one day interval to forecast the propagation of Covid-19. The proposed model can be easily implemented with daily updated data sets of the pandemic publicly available by distinct online sources. It has only two adjustable parameters and it predicts the evolution of the total number of infected people in a country for the next 14 days if parameters do not change during the analyzed period. The model incorporates the main aspects of the disease such as the fact that there are asymptomatic and symptomatic phases (both capable of propagating the virus), and that these phases take almost two weeks before the infected person status evolves to the next (asymptomatic becomes symptomatic or symptomatic becomes either recovered or dead). A striking advantage of the model for its implementation by the health sector is that it gives directly the number of total infected people in each day (in thousands, tens of thousands or hundred of thousands). Here, the model is tested with data from Brazil, UK and South Korea, presenting low error rates on the prediction of the evolution of the disease in all analyzed countries. We hope this model may be a useful tool to estimate the propagation of the disease.

Brain-Machine Interface in Chronic Stroke: Randomized Trial Long-Term Follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Brain-machine interfaces (BMIs) have been recently proposed as a new tool to induce functional recovery in stroke patients. OBJECTIVE: Here we evaluated long-term effects of BMI training and physiotherapy in motor function of severely paralyzed chronic stroke patients 6 months after intervention. METHODS: A total of 30 chronic stroke patients with severe hand paresis from our previous study were invited, and 28 underwent follow-up assessments. BMI training included voluntary desynchronization of ipsilesional EEG-sensorimotor rhythms triggering paretic upper-limb movements via robotic orthoses (experimental group, n = 16) or random orthoses movements (sham group, n = 12). Both groups received identical physiotherapy following BMI sessions and a home-based training program after intervention. Upper-limb motor assessment scores, electromyography (EMG), and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) were assessed before (Pre), immediately after (Post1), and 6 months after intervention (Post2). RESULTS: The experimental group presented with upper-limb Fugl-Meyer assessment (cFMA) scores significantly higher in Post2 (13.44 ± 1.96) as compared with the Pre session (11.16 ± 1.73; P = .015) and no significant changes between Post1 and Post2 sessions. The Sham group showed no significant changes on cFMA scores. Ashworth scores and EMG activity in both groups increased from Post1 to Post2. Moreover, fMRI-BOLD laterality index showed no significant difference from Pre or Post1 to Post2 sessions. CONCLUSIONS: BMI-based rehabilitation promotes long-lasting improvements in motor function of chronic stroke patients with severe paresis and represents a promising strategy in severe stroke neurorehabilitation.

Brain-machine interface in chronic stroke rehabilitation: a controlled study.

OBJECTIVE: Chronic stroke patients with severe hand weakness respond poorly to rehabilitation efforts. Here, we evaluated efficacy of daily brain-machine interface (BMI) training to increase the hypothesized beneficial effects of physiotherapy alone in patients with severe paresis in a double-blind sham-controlled design proof of concept study. METHODS: Thirty-two chronic stroke patients with severe hand weakness were randomly assigned to 2 matched groups and participated in 17.8 ± 1.4 days of training rewarding desynchronization of ipsilesional oscillatory sensorimotor rhythms with contingent online movements of hand and arm orthoses (experimental group, n = 16). In the control group (sham group, n = 16), movements of the orthoses occurred randomly. Both groups received identical behavioral physiotherapy immediately following BMI training or the control intervention. Upper limb motor function scores, electromyography from arm and hand muscles, placebo-expectancy effects, and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) blood oxygenation level-dependent activity were assessed before and after intervention. RESULTS: A significant group × time interaction in upper limb (combined hand and modified arm) Fugl-Meyer assessment (cFMA) motor scores was found. cFMA scores improved more in the experimental than in the control group, presenting a significant improvement of cFMA scores (3.41 ± 0.563-point difference, p = 0.018) reflecting a clinically meaningful change from no activity to some in paretic muscles. cFMA improvements in the experimental group correlated with changes in fMRI laterality index and with paretic hand electromyography activity. Placebo-expectancy scores were comparable for both groups. INTERPRETATION: The addition of BMI training to behaviorally oriented physiotherapy can be used to induce functional improvements in motor function in chronic stroke patients without residual finger movements and may open a new door in stroke neurorehabilitation.

Automatic isotropic fractionation for large-scale quantitative cell analysis of nervous tissue.

Isotropic fractionation is a quantitative technique that allows reliable estimates of absolute numbers of neuronal and non-neuronal brain cells. However, being fast for single small brains, it requires a long time for processing large brains or many small ones, if done manually. To solve this problem, we developed a machine to automate the method, and tested its efficiency, consistency, and reliability as compared with manual processing. The machine consists of a set of electronically controlled rotation and translation motors coupled to tissue grinders, which automatically transform fixed tissue into homogeneous nuclei suspensions. Speed and torque of the motors can be independently regulated by electronic circuits, according to the volume of tissue being processed and its mechanical resistance to fractionation. To test the machine, twelve paraformaldehyde-fixed rat brains and eight human cerebella were separated into two groups, respectively: one processed automatically and the other, manually. Both pairs of groups (rat and human tissue) followed the same, published protocol of the method. We compared the groups according to nuclei morphology, degree of clustering and number of cells. The machine proved superior for yielding faster results due to simultaneous processing in multiple grinders. Quantitative analysis of machine-processed tissue resulted in similar average numbers of total brain cells, neurons, and non-neuronal cells, statistically similar to the manually processed tissue and equivalent to previously published data. We concluded that the machine is more efficient because it utilizes many homogenizers simultaneously, equally consistent in producing high quality material for counting, and quantitatively reliable as compared to manual processing.

NMDA receptor activation modulates programmed cell death during early post-natal retinal development: a BDNF-dependent mechanism.

Glutamate is a classical excitotoxin of the central nervous system (CNS), but extensive work demonstrates neuroprotective roles of this neurotransmitter in developing CNS. Mechanisms of glutamate-mediated neuroprotection are still under scrutiny. In this study, we investigated mediators of glutamate-induced neuroprotection, and tested whether this neurotransmitter controls programmed cell death in the developing retina. The protective effect of N-methyl-d-aspartate (NMDA) upon differentiating cells of retinal explants was completely blocked by a neutralizing antibody to brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), but not by an antibody to neurotrophin-4 (NT-4). Consistently, chronic activation of NMDA receptor increased the expression of BDNF and trkB mRNA, as well as BDNF protein content, but did not change the content of NT-4 mRNA in retinal tissue. Furthermore, we showed that in vivo inactivation of NMDA receptor by intraperitoneal injections of MK-801 increased natural cell death of specific cell populations of the post-natal retina. Our results show that chronic activation of NMDA receptors in vitro induces a BDNF-dependent neuroprotective state in differentiating retinal cells, and that NMDA receptor activation controls programmed cell death of developing retinal neurons in vivo.